TL;DR

• Arthur Hayes warns Monad (MON) could drop up to 99% due to its high FDV and low circulating supply.
• Says the project fits the pattern of a "high FDV, low-float VC coin."
• Predicts most new layer-1s will fail, with only a handful likely to survive long term.
• Believes excessive money printing - not the Bitcoin halving - will drive the next crypto bull market.
• Monad launched this week after raising $225M from Paradigm and distributing its airdrop.
• Hayes cites Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash as the few chains he expects to last multiple cycles.

When Arthur Hayes comments on a new crypto project, the market usually listens - sometimes reluctantly. And this time, the former BitMEX CEO has set his sights on Monad, the newly launched high-performance layer-1 blockchain backed by big-name venture capital.

During an interview with Altcoin Daily, Hayes laid out what he sees as a structural flaw in Monad's tokenomics, calling it "another high FDV, low-float VC coin." And from his view, that combination alone is capable of crushing 99% of the token's value if market conditions tighten.

Source: Altcoin Daily

He didn't soften the message. According to Hayes, when too few tokens circulate early on, while the fully diluted valuation sits in the billions, the setup becomes predictable: early hype → aggressive price run-up → unlock events → brutal selloff → long-term stagnation.

"It's going to be another bear chain," he said, noting that initial pumps in new L1 launches rarely represent sustainable value. The bigger problem, in his view, is that most new chains simply don't find real users or real economic activity. The hype fades, the unlocks begin, and liquidity drains out quickly.

Why Hayes Thinks Monad Is High-Risk

Monad isn't a small project. It raised $225M from Paradigm last year, positioned as a high-performance Ethereum alternative that aims to deliver faster execution while maintaining compatibility with the broader EVM world. But Hayes' concern isn't about the technology. It's the token structure, which he believes places retail investors at a steep disadvantage from day one. Projects with:

• High fully diluted value (FDV)
• Low circulating supply
• Heavy VC allocations

...often follow a familiar pattern. The low float creates artificial scarcity and fuels early hype. Prices climb fast because not many tokens exist. But as unlocks happen, early investors - especially VC firms - gain access to massive token stacks the market cannot absorb.

Hayes' framing was blunt: the mechanics alone can trigger a 90-99% decline even if the tech is promising. He told Altcoin Daily that retail traders should be very cautious with projects where the FDV vastly outweighs the available supply, because the sell pressure is already baked in.

How Monad Entered the Market

The timing of Hayes' warning is notable. Monad's mainnet launched this week along with the airdrop of its MON token. The project has been one of the most anticipated L1 releases since the previous cycle, especially given its ties to Paradigm and its plans to deliver ultra-high execution speeds.

The launch placed Monad directly into a competitive field full of L1 networks trying to differentiate themselves. But Hayes believes that, historically, almost all of them fail to establish real user traction. And despite the buzz, he thinks Monad is no exception.

Only a Few Chains Will Survive, Hayes Says

Hayes argues that the crypto ecosystem will eventually consolidate around a small group of foundational chains - a kind of survival-of-the-fittest scenario where only a few networks maintain lasting relevance.

He named only four:

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Solana (SOL)
• Zcash (ZEC)

In his view, these are "the small group of protocols" that can survive multiple cycles because they've already proven long-term demand, community strength, and cultural staying power. Everything else, including new L1 networks, remains speculative until proven otherwise.

That includes Monad, which he believes is entering a market already saturated with faster chains, more mature ecosystems, and established liquidity hubs.

Hayes' Macro View: Why He's Still Bullish

Despite his criticism of Monad, Hayes wasn't bearish on the market as a whole. In fact, he offered one of his most bullish long-term takes in months. He believes global governments - especially the United States - are preparing for another wave of aggressive money printing. With elections approaching, fiscal spending rising, and growth slowing, he expects massive liquidity injections across major economies.

This isn't new territory for Hayes. He has repeatedly argued that crypto rallies are driven primarily by macro liquidity, not Bitcoin's halving or supply schedule. And he doubled down on that message in the interview. He dismissed the idea that halvings alone generate bull markets, saying past cycles were fueled by credit expansion rather than Bitcoin's supply cuts. Liquidity, in his view, is the real catalyst - and Bitcoin simply responds faster than traditional assets.

He called Bitcoin the "last free-market smoke alarm," reacting earlier and more violently to shifts in global monetary policy.

Monad's Challenge: Proving Real Adoption

To be fair, Monad hasn't claimed it would instantly compete with the giants. The project is still early, and the developer community is only beginning to build out its ecosystem. But Hayes' warning reflects a broader concern that has repeatedly surfaced during major L1 launches:

Can a new chain survive long enough to build real adoption before sell pressure overwhelms it? The question becomes harder when a project launches with:

• High initial valuations
• Heavy VC concentrations
• Limited token liquidity in early stages
• A competitive market full of faster and cheaper chains

For Monad, the burden is proving it is more than a hype-driven airdrop and that real developers - not just speculators - show up.

Why FDV Has Become a Flashpoint in Crypto

Hayes' comments tap into a growing criticism within the industry: early tokenomics increasingly favor insiders over users. FDV has become one of the most controversial metrics in crypto because it often signals hidden risk.

When a project launches with a billion-dollar FDV but only a small fraction of tokens circulating, its market cap can appear deceptively healthy. Retail traders buy at the inflated early valuation, unaware of the magnitude of tokens that will eventually unlock into the market.

Hayes isn't the only voice raising alarms about these structures. Many analysts have pointed out that high-FDV, low-float tokens routinely suffer massive long-term declines, even if they perform well at launch. For now, Monad stands in that category - and Hayes wants traders to treat it accordingly.

Looking Ahead

Hayes' commentary won't stop people from experimenting with Monad or exploring its developer tools. Ecosystems always start small. But his warning does set the tone for how cautious traders should be when approaching new high-FDV projects. Even with strong backers and a polished launch, Monad will need to demonstrate real utility fast - before token unlocks and market pressure reshape its trajectory.

For now, the spotlight remains on whether the chain can attract genuine builders and whether it can convince the market it's more than just another speculative L1 launch.