With wars, ETFs, and liquidations colliding, Bitcoin’s next move could surprise everyone.

What to Know

• Bitcoin is hovering around $102,600 with a sharp split in sentiment: Bulls see $114K coming, bears eye $94K first.

• Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 40, showing rising market anxiety after recent geopolitical tensions.

• Famous trader Cas Abbe warns of a potential drop to $93K-$94K if Middle East tensions escalate.

• Bitcoin’s historical pattern after major conflicts: short-term dip, then sharp rallies. Will history repeat?

Bitcoin is hovering just above $100,000, and the crypto market is divided on whether the next move is down toward $94K or up toward $114K. On one side, fears around U.S. involvement in Middle East conflicts and economic policy uncertainty point to a potential retest of lower support zones. On the other, historical data shows Bitcoin often rebounds after geopolitical shocks but As volatility rises, both sides make a compelling case.

Where Bitcoin Stands Now

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,600+ with the Fear & Greed Index pulling back to 40, a notable shift into “Fear” territory after weeks of bullish sentiment. The Altcoin Index sits at 16, showing that Bitcoin dominance remains high while altcoins are largely lagging behind.

The broader crypto market has been struggling to regain upward momentum after Bitcoin’s 7.43% decline over the past 30 days. The weekly low touched $100,973, sparking debates across trading desks and social media.

The big question is simple: Do we dip to $94K or rip to $114K first?

The Bear Case: Retesting $94K?

The bearish outlook is coming from technical traders, wariness around global conflicts, and recent price behavior.

Well-known trader Cas Abbe outlined one of the clearest bearish scenarios:

“This is my worst-case scenario for $BTC. A dump towards $93K-$94K before bottom formation and reversal. There's a 20%-25% chance of this happening… In April 2025, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs and the market crashed. Most people thought it was the bottom but BTC actually bottomed 4 days after it. Today, the US got involved in the Middle East situation and most people are expecting it to be a bottom. But what if April 2025 repeats again?”

Source — Cas Abbe on X

This view aligns with data from CoinGlass, which shows concentrated liquidation clusters in the $97K area,  a clear support band that many traders will be watching closely. 

If another geopolitical shock occurs or macroeconomic policy tightens unexpectedly, this worst-case play might unfold before Bitcoin finds its next leg up.

The Bull Case: Why $114K Might Come First

Despite the near-term shakiness, many prominent voices remain bullish.

Historical context also helps the bull argument. One trader on X shared past examples of Bitcoin reacting positively after war-driven shocks:

“The war is actually bullish... 2024: Iran → Israel, –18% (first 2 weeks), +28% (next 1.5 months) 2024 (2): Iran → Israel, –10% (1st week), +62% (next 2 months) 2025: Israel → Iran, Iran → Israel, –2.5% (1st day), +?%”

Source — @0x_gremlin on X

Another perspective comes from Merlijn, a trader who noted:

“FEAR OF A WAR IS LOUD. BUT FACTS ARE LOUDER. In 2022, $BTC pumped +42% in 35 days after the Ukraine war began. That was deep in a bear market. Now it’s 2025. War fears rise again. But Bitcoin’s above $100K. And we’re still in a bull market.”

Source — @MerlijnTrader on X

These examples suggest that BTC has a history of rebounding sharply in the months following geopolitical events, regardless of initial panic selling.

Macro Factors at Play

Outside of war headlines, other major forces are shaping BTC’s trajectory:

1. Fear & Greed Index: Down to 40, showing anxiety but also potential for sharp rebounds.

2. Altcoin Weakness: Bitcoin dominance remains strong, partly explaining the muted risk appetite elsewhere.

3. Global Uncertainty: Ongoing questions around U.S. economic policy, interest rates, and election-year surprises.

If the macro winds turn favorable such as dovish tones from the Fed, stabilization in the Middle East, or continued ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s next breakout could come faster than expected.

Final Thoughts: Get Ready for Volatility, Either Way

The next move for Bitcoin won’t depend on hype or sentiment alone, it’s all about liquidity, market structure, and macro conditions. Right now, the technicals show key support around $97,000, but upside targets between $114K to $130K remain very much alive if we clear key resistance.

Volatility is back, and Bitcoin’s next chapter is about to be written. Smart investors are always preparing for both.